
The tongues are wagging full time in bars across Michigan State this week. Rumors of a potential merger between Chrysler and General Motors have been mentioned in the business sections of newspapers. No one really knows how far, what exactly has been discussed and what the outcome will be. Those who recall the original Chrysler buyout by Daimler-Benz in 1998 will remember the little shock waves when it turned out Chrysler's big buyout turned into a reverse take over by Daimler-Benz. We know now that merger didn't work out well as expected. The synergies between German high technology and American chutzpah were less than ideal. What do the two parties bring to the table this time around one wonders?
GM brings a staggering debt load to the tune of 1 billion dollars a month, a sales drop of 18% and top heavy management. Chrysler brings about $11.7 billion in cash and marketable securities along with a huge 25% drop in sales. With Cerberus as matchmaker, what can we expect to materialize? Talk of Cerburus taking a 49% stake in GMAC plus equity in General Motors stock has been suggested. Frankly, I expect to see a different picture considering GMAC's dismal performance in financing lately. Cerberus is a private group with a strong record in restructuring companies for profit achievement. A common method is 'harvesting' which is strategic management speak for selling off the underperformers for money and keeping the good parts of a large company for future profit grooming and later resale. In the case of Chrysler, it appears this will be a deal where GM is allowed access to Chrysler's cash in order to finance new models and research in exchange for solid shares in GM. There has been talk of eliminating the Chrysler franchise altogether and just keeping Jeep. Frankly, it's too speculative to consider that right now.
I believe the most likely scenario is two possible sales. Cerberus may spin off the Viper franchise to a sports car company and sell the rest to GM for some combination money swap and ownership deal. That's as far as I can venture. The future looks dire for Chrysler, that much is true. It doesn't bode well for GM when you check out their history of errors and mismanagement. If Cerberus gets hold of controlling interest, you can be sure some 'harvesting' will be done on the 14th floor. Panic in Detroit indeed!

